Canada’s Substance Use Disorder Outlook Part 2

Outlook for the Next 10 Years

Looking ahead, there are several possible trajectories for how substance use disorder may affect Canada, depending on policy, social supports, and broader economic and social trends. Some likely outcomes include:

1. Rising economic burden if trends continue
   Without stronger prevention, regulation, and treatment, the costs associated with SUDs will likely grow, especially from opioid and stimulant misuse. The ongoing opioid crisis—with increasingly toxic unregulated drug supply—suggests that lost productivity, healthcare, and mortality costs could increase substantially.
2. Pressure on labour force participation and skill shortages
   Canada is already facing demographic shifts (aging population) and labour shortages in certain sectors. If substance use contributes to higher disability, early retirements, or deaths, the gap in the workforce could widen, increasing pressure to automate, import labour, or raise immigration.
3. Increased healthcare and social service costs
   Greater demand for treatment services, mental health supports, harm reduction programs, and social supports will strain provincial and federal budgets. If investment is not scaled up effectively, waiting times, quality of care, and inequities in access may worsen.

Are You Ready to Change?

1. Policy responses and mitigation
   There is potential for positive change. Enhanced public health policy, including harm reduction, decriminalization (in some jurisdictions), access to safe supply, better mental health integration, employer-based supports, and prevention efforts could moderate the worst outcomes. These could reduce healthcare burdens and productivity losses if implemented effectively and equitably.
2. Social and economic inequalities becoming more pronounced
   Substance use disorders tend to cluster among disadvantaged populations—lower income, marginalized groups, those with unstable housing, etc. Without targeted support, inequalities in health, income, and opportunity could widen, adding social costs and reducing social cohesion.

Conclusion

In sum, substance use disorders present a multifaceted and growing challenge for Canada’s economy and workforce. The direct costs—healthcare, criminal justice—and the indirect costs—lost productivity, death, disability—are already substantial, and tend to rise over time especially with substances like opioids or stimulants whose harms are increasing. Over the next decade, unless Canada scales up prevention, treatment, regulatory policy, and social support, we should expect rising costs, more pronounced labour shortages, and widening inequalities. On the other hand, proactive, evidence-based policy could significantly mitigate these harms.

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